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The Law of Large Numbers: What Six Dice and Insurance Companies Teach Us About Reality
The world is full of uncertainty, yet we constantly make decisions based on small samples—short-term results, a few experiences, or limited data. This often leads us astray. The Law of Large Numbers (LLN) is the mathematical principle that pulls us back to reality. It tells us something simple but powerful: Small samples create noise. Large…
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Businesses – The Great, the Good and the Gruesome
When evaluating businesses, it’s essential to recognize which ones create lasting value and which ones struggle to stay afloat. Inspired by Warren Buffett’s insights, let’s break them down into three categories: The Great Business A great business has a strong competitive edge—what Buffett calls a “moat”—that protects its profits. This could be a globally trusted…
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